Polling guru Curtice warns Boris in ‘deep trouble’ as Labour set to win next election

Most Tory voters think PM was 'lying' about party says expert

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Labour is continuing to record a small but consistent lead over the Conservatives in the opinion polls, having spent much of the past few years trailing well behind the Government. Sir Keir Starmer’s party has been ahead in the polls since early December – around the time stories first began to emerge of Downing Street parties taking place during Covid-19 lockdowns. The lead has varied in size, narrowing at the start of this month but growing again in recent days.

Speaking to LBC, Sir John has warned the Labour Party could win a general election with a majority.

He said: “Those kinds of numbers, even though the electoral system at the moment works very heavily against Labour, we could not rule out the possibility that Labour could win an election with an overall majority.

“The crucial point is last month, partygate did a lot of damage.

“There were signs of recovery in the polls as it went out of the media sphere at the beginning of this month but it’s all come back again and the Conservatives are in an even worse position.”

He added: “What do voters make of this? We are told by YouGov that over half of Conservative voters do not think that the Prime Minister was being honest in his statement of apology at the dispatch box and his belief that it was a work event.

“That’s in tune with a lot of other Conservative polls where around half of Conservative voters do not think the Prime Minister is telling the truth.”

Based on a seven-day rolling average of all national published polls, Labour’s vote share stood at 40 percent on January 14, ahead of the Conservatives on 32 percent, with the Liberal Democrats on 12 percent and the Greens on 5 percent.

Labour’s eight-point lead is almost an exact reverse of the situation six months ago, when the Tories were averaging 42 percent and Labour 32 percent.

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The Liberal Democrats have also improved their performance, averaging between 10 percent and 12 percent since early December.

The party has spent much of the period since the 2019 general election in single figures.

While a Savanta ComRes survey, its first voting intention poll since the so-called partygate allegations broke, put Labour on 42 points, up by five, with Boris Johnson’s Tories on 32, down by one.


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The Liberal Democrats are on 11 points, the SNP and the Green Party jointly on four, with “others” taking 7 percent of the predicted vote.

The polling outfit said 42 percent was the highest vote share for Sir Keir Starmer’s party since 2013, with its 10-point lead the best since April 2019.

Chris Hopkins, political research director at Savanta ComRes, said: “This bombshell poll comes with renewed calls for the Prime Minister to resign, with the vast majority of the public, half of 2019 Conservatives and even two in five people that would still vote Conservative now saying that Boris Johnson’s time is up.

“Ultimately, however, it’s his backbenchers most likely to remove him and, even though a Labour lead of this size would deprive Keir Starmer of an outright majority, many of the Conservatives who owe Boris Johnson their jobs for his remarkable 2019 result would probably be out of Westminster if these figures were to play out at a general election.”

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