How Long Will Tesla Dominate EV Sales?

Last Friday, while U.S. equity markets were closed, Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) reported worldwide first-quarter deliveries of 184,800 all-electric vehicles (EVs). Of that total, Tesla produced 180,338 vehicles, all Model 3s and Ys, and delivered 2,020 Model S and Model X vehicles, along with around 2,400 Model 3 and Model Y EVs.

Last week, China-based Nio Ltd. (NYSE: NIO) and XPeng Inc. (NYSE: XPEV) reported first-quarter sales totaling 20,060 and 13,340, respectively. Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) reported last week that it sold 6,614 of its Mustang Mach-E EV and 7,176 of its F-150 hybrid electrics. Ford said it sold 25,980 electrified vehicles in the quarter, about 5% of its total U.S. sales of more than 500,000 vehicles.

General Motors Co. (NYSE: GM) announced that it sold 9,025 Chevy Bolt EVs in the first quarter, a new U.S. record for quarterly sales, and 2.1% of total Chevrolet volume for the quarter. Nissan sold 2,925 Leaf EVs in the United States last quarter. Stellantis N.V. (NYSE: STLA), new home of Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep and Ram, will introduce its first hybrid, the Jeep Wrangler 4xe, later this year.

Toyota Motor Corp. (NYSE: TM) reported alternative powered vehicle (APV) U.S. sales totaling 60,133 vehicles in the quarter. That includes its Prius and all other hybrids and the Mirai hydrogen-fueled vehicles. Toyota’s first all-electric is due out late this year, as are two EVs from Honda Motor Co. Ltd. (NYSE: HMC).

Volkswagen has yet to release worldwide data, but the company’s U.S. Audi division sold 4,324 EVs in the quarter, up by 153% year over year and nearly 8% of Audi’s U.S. total. VW’s new ID.4 was only available in March and sold just 474 units for the quarter. U.S. sales of VW’s Porsche Taycan totaled 2,008 units, 10 times more than in the same period a year ago and 11.5% of Porsche’s total U.S. sales for the quarter.

While totals are not available yet for all EVs, it is pretty clear that Tesla’s deliveries will more than top all the others combined. That’s not really a surprise. What would be a surprise is if all the other automakers’ combined sales were to surpass Tesla in the next three to five years.

What may be surprising is how fast the market for EVs appears to be growing. Electrified light vehicles accounted for about 10% of global sales last year. By 2025, that could rise to as much as 30% and by 2030 could be approaching 50%.

If Tesla reaches EV sales of around a million by 2025, its share of the all-electric market is likely to remain larger than all EV sales by the combined total from all other automakers. And this dominance does not include robotaxis or Tesla’s own robotaxi fleet. It is based on Tesla’s ability to beat competing carmakers on price.

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