Will it be cold this winter? UK long range forecast pinpoints 9C chill

BBC Weather: UK to feel Autumnal as rain moves in

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Autumn’s arrival has prompted an immediate temperature drop in the UK, with the mercury below 20C for the first time in months. The season’s colder start will have come as a relief for some Britons after an, at times, unbearable summer of 40C highs. But they may wonder whether another few months of extremes await, and forecasts have revealed what to expect.

Will it be cold this winter?

The mercury has dropped widely in September, with the sun having retreated behind clouds for the most part over the last few weeks.

Average temperatures have settled around the mid-teens between 10C and 17C, a marked decrease of nearly 20C from the summer highs.

Many Britons have found themselves in a sweet spot where the weather is neither too warm nor too cold, but forecasts show that will soon change.

Long-range weather forecasts suggest the weather will soon become much colder.

The Met Office has warned an incoming cold front moving southwards to the UK could cause temperatures to drop into the single figures.

Cold air from the north could see the mercury plummet to 9C in Scotland from September 26, with showers and strong winds carrying the brisk chill.

England, Wales and Northern Ireland will only be slightly warmer, with highs of 12C from next week.

Speaking to Sky News, Met Office meteorologist Alex Burkill said temperatures would “take a bit of a drop”.

He said: “I think Sunday night into Monday is going to be a bit chilly for some but because of the cloud, the rain, the strong winds, temperatures won’t drop too much.

“I think it’s going to be from Monday onwards when we’re going to see the real cooler feel.”

The Met Office forecast doesn’t change much for the end of September and the first week of October.

The agency’s long-range outlook – which covers Thursday, September 29 to Saturday, October 9 – warns of an “unsettled” UK weather landscape.

Cloud, rain and limited sunshine will dominate the period, with “average” temperatures at first.

Forecasts predict these averages will eventually give way to another round of “rather cold” conditions.

The long-range forecast states: “Cloud and rain will most likely spread from the west or southwest to affect all areas at times.”

“Temperatures likely around normal or slightly below.

“Into October, the unsettled regime is likely to continue dominating the UK weather.

“Low-pressure systems will bring showers or longer periods of rain to most parts of the country, with the highest rainfall expected in the west and northwest.

“Winds may become strong at times, most likely in the northwest.

“A shift towards more settled weather could possibly begin at the end of this period.

“Temperatures rather cold at first, then trending close to average.”

According to AccuWeather, temperatures for October will start around 18C.

They will later drop to around 12C again by October 24.

The Met Office forecast suggests the incoming cold spell will eventually give way to “near to or slightly above average” temperatures.

Early modelling from AccuWeather suggests the month should end slightly warmer, with the mercury rising by 1C to between 13C and 14C.

While still early and unreliable at this time, more distant forecasts for November 2022 suggest conditions will become colder still.

By November 25, AccuWeather’s forecasts predict southern parts of the country could see the mercury drop into the single-figure range to 9C, heralding a chilly winter.

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