A Coalition MP has a plan to win more elections: Let Libs and Nats fight each other

A Liberal MP is calling on the Coalition parties to consider competing against each other in more seats in a strategic move that he says will boost the conservatives’ chances of winning elections.

Under the plan, the Coalition agreement would be rewritten to allow for three-cornered contests when there is a strategic advantage.

Mornington MP Chris Crewther wants the Liberal and National parties to consider updating the Coalition agreement to allow more three-cornered contestsCredit: Eamon Gallagher

Former federal MP Chris Crewther, who now represents the seat of Mornington in state parliament, told The Age Labor had been “smart and strategic” with preferencing, which had allowed it to hoover up support from left-leaning minor parties.

He believes that by allowing both the Liberal and National parties to run candidates, they could preference each other on how-to-vote cards and boost the chances of a Coalition candidate winning the seat. Currently, three-cornered contests are usually only permitted when a sitting Coalition MP retires.

“While we need to reflect on what we are doing as a party and how we better connect with people, we also need to look at our strategy at a federal and state level,” Crewther said. “Preference flows have been an issue for the Coalition in recent years.”

ABC election analyst Antony Green said that at recent elections, about 85 per cent of Greens preferences flowed to Labor – up from 70 per cent two decades ago. He said a drop in support for the major parties had made it harder for the Coalition to win seats, but warned that running both National and Liberal candidates could simply split the Coalition’s vote.

Under Crewther’s plan, the Nationals would be encouraged to run in electorates on Melbourne’s fringes such as Hastings, Mornington, South Barwon and Polwarth, which he said would boost the Coalition’s chances. Liberals could also contest National-held seats such as Mildura or Morwell to help fend off Labor or independent candidates.

Crewther, who once ran for the Liberals in a rare three-cornered contest for the federal seat of Mallee, believes changing the rules would have helped the Coalition hold Mildura in 2018, when the seat went to an independent, and the federal seat of Indi, which first fell to an independent in 2013.

“We need to make the most of the Coalition agreement – at a federal or state level – or risk losing more seats,” he said.

Tony Barry, director of the Redbridge polling group and a former Liberal Party strategist, said weak preference flows to the Liberals meant the party often needed a primary vote above 45 per cent to win some seats.

“The combined non-major party vote at the 2010 Victorian state election was 19.9 per cent and at last year’s election it was 28.9 per cent, so the major parties must have a preference strategy in place if they want to be competitive,” he said.

"Labor recognised this about a decade ago and have clearly worked hard to cultivate minor parties and independents to secure preference flows."

Barry said while Crewther’s proposal had merit, there was no silver bullet to make the Victorian Liberals competitive again.

Former Liberal Party strategist Tony Barry.Credit: Simon Schluter

“The Victorian Nationals have good brand equity as evidenced by the last election where they made some good gains, while the Victorian Liberals went backwards,” he said.

“[The Liberals] need to modernise their campaign capacity; develop policies that are personally relevant to voters, such as housing attainability; differentiate from Labor on the economy; and stop playing on the fringes.”

Antony Green said the National Party would have to secure at least 10 per cent of the vote otherwise “it’s probably not worth them running”.

He cited a three-cornered contest in Bass at the 2022 election. In that contest, Labor held the seat south-east of Melbourne – which includes Pearcedale, Clyde, Koo Wee Rup, Inverloch and Phillip Island – by a margin of 0.2 per cent, despite the Liberals recording a primary vote of 30 per cent and the Nationals recording 13 per cent.

“In Bass, the presence of the National Party didn’t help Liberals,” he said.

“The problem is the Nationals don’t have much infrastructure in these peri-metropolitan seats.”

In response, Opposition Leader John Pesutto said: “There is no consideration being given to changing the current Coalition agreement.”

Nationals leader Peter Walsh did not respond to questions.

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