How could a Macron or Le Pen win affect France and Europe?
Marine Le Pen 'already succeeded' against Macron says host
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Since becoming the youngest ever French President in 2017, Emmanuel Macron has rocked the political landscape in France. The 44-year-old heads into 2022’s presidential election as the favourite to win with pollsters and bookmakers alike, though he is being hotly chased down by his old rival Marine Le Pen.
The incumbent President has been viewed by the public to have a centre-right political leaning.
At times his policies have drawn outrage from the public – none more so than during the yellow vest movement of 2018.
In the past month, he has also drawn criticism for his handling of the war between Russia and Ukraine and for maintaining an open dialogue with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Nonetheless, Mr Macron is still seen as the most likely winner of April’s presidential election. So how could a win for him affect France and Europe?
Professor Anand Menon, director of the think-tank UK in a Changing Europe, told Express.co.uk that he believes we’ll see “a lot of focus on the EU” if Mr Macron were to win a second term.
He said: “He will come back as the senior statesman in Europe because Olaf Scholz [German Chancellor] is relatively new to the job.
“He’ll have significant influence within the European Union, particularly if he wins a legislative majority as well to go with the presidency.
“And I suspect that he sees this second term, partly because it’s his second term and partly because of what’s happening in Ukraine, as his chance to stamp his authority on Europe and get Europe reformed.”
When French residents register their ballots on Sunday, Mr Macron is likely to face his toughest competition from Ms Le Pen – candidate for the far-right National Rally party.
At present, she is polling as the second favourite to win and has managed to close the gap on her rival to just three percentage points with some pollsters.
Throughout the election, she has campaigned on the party’s traditional line of curbing immigration and ‘keeping France for the French’.
If Ms Le Pen were to spring somewhat of a shock and win, the consequences would be “interesting” to watch unfold according to Professor Menon.
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He said: “I think one of the things about a Marine Le Pen victory is she’s not going to get a majority in the National Assembly.
“I just can’t see her winning and getting a majority in Parliament. What that means is her powers will be relatively limited because in those situations when you have a President and a Prime Minister from different parties it’s because Parliament selects the Prime Minister or at least Parliament has to be able to provide a majority for a Prime Minister.
“Firstly, what a Marine Le Pen victory does to the reputation of France will be quite interesting to watch.
“Secondly, her foreign policy will be interesting because foreign policy is the area where the President has the most autonomy to act regardless of who the Prime Minister is.
“And I think on the EU it’s quite clear that she is in favour of a far looser European Union than Macron. She believes in national sovereignty.
“So, you won’t expect any great new intricate steps from her. And I suspect she will cause all sorts of trouble at European Council meetings.”
Professor Menon added that if Ms Le Pen were to win, analysts would be interested to see whether it would “encourage” developments in far-right politics for other EU member states.
He gave the example of the Italian general election which is scheduled to take place no later than June 1, 2023.
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