Q&A: What do 3.92% mortgage rates, highest in 33 months, mean? – The Denver Post
Historically cheap loans may be over as mortgage rates soared again this week, approaching levels not seen since 2019.
The average rate on a 30-year loan reached 3.92%, up from 3.69% the previous week, mortgage buyer Freddie Mac reported Thursday.
It’s a stunning reversal from the pandemic era’s borrowing bargains. Back at Christmastime, the rate was 3.05%. And a year ago, the long-term rate was 2.81%. The last time the 30-year rate was higher was 3.99% in May 2019.
FYI, the average rate on 15-year, fixed-rate mortgages, popular among those refinancing their homes, rose to 3.15% from 2.93% one week earlier. It last breached 3% in March of 2020, just at the pandemic was breaking in the U.S.
Q. What’s up?
A. The Federal Reserve has signaled it will begin the first in a series of interest rate hikes in March, reversing pandemic-era policies that have fueled hiring and growth but also contributing to inflation levels not seen since the early 1980s.
Consumer prices jumped 7.5% last month compared with 12 months earlier, the steepest year-over-year increase since February 1982, according to the Labor Department. Higher costs for nearly everything have burdened consumers, offsetting pay raises and reinforcing the Federal Reserve’s decision to begin raising borrowing rates.
The home-loan surge follows the recent rise in Treasury yields, which have moved higher due to inflationary pressures and market expectations of more aggressive policy moves by the Federal Reserve, said Joel Kan, the Mortgage Bankers Association’s associate vice president of economic and industry forecasting.
Q. What’s this gonna cost?
A. At this week’s 30-year rate, a $2,500 payment gets you a $528,107 mortgage.
That’s 10% less that just eight weeks ago amid the holiday season. We haven’t seen a two-month loss of borrowing power this big since 1994. And bigger cuts have only been seen 1% of the time since 1971.
This is a rarity.
Q. What does it mean for housing?
A. The price for a new home has surged anywhere from 15% to 30%-plus across the nation, depending on the market. Housing has been in short supply, even before the pandemic, and higher prices and rising interest rates will make it even harder for homebuyers.
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“As rates and house prices rise, affordability has become a substantial hurdle for potential homebuyers, especially as inflation threatens to place a strain on consumer budgets,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist.
Pricier mortgages mean refinancing benefits for fewer homeowners. As a result, the share of applications that were refinances was at its lowest level since July 2019, Kan said, adding that refinance applications fell 9% last week and stood at around half of last year’s pace.
Applications for mortgages to purchase a home also saw a decline over the week, Kan said.
“Prospective buyers still face elevated sales prices in addition to higher mortgage rates,” Kan said. The mix of more conventional loans has pushed the average loan size to yet another record of $453,000, he noted.
Q. Who can buy?
A. Great question! Rising home prices combined with limited inventory have created a one-two-punch for buyers, with fewer homes affordable to buyers based on their income level, said Danielle Hale, Realtor.com’s chief economist.
That was the case even before mortgage rate increases, which have upped the monthly mortgage cost of the typical $375,000 home listing by roughly $115 since December, she said.
“Looking ahead, we expect rising incomes to help home shoppers navigate rising housing costs, but buyers will also likely have to make compromises to be successful,” said Hale.
Q. How high could rates go?
A. Credit Suisse Group AG strategist Zoltan Pozsar wrote to clients that a 1980s-style rate shock is needed to set off corrections in overpriced assets including houses, stocks, houses and Bitcoin to deter drive people back into the workforce.
The difference in 2022 is the economic challenges are “about more supply of labor, not less demand for it,” higher housing costs, and the availability of workers, Pozsar said.
The key? Increasing longer-term borrowing costs that underpin asset valuations, the influential analyst said.
“Maybe the Fed should hike 50 basis points in March, put an end to press conferences, and sell $50 billion of 10-year notes the next day,” Pozsar wrote.
Bloomberg, Associated Press, CNN and the Southern California News Group’s Jonathan Lansner contributed to this report.
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