Indian Economy To See ‘V’-shaped Recovery, Govt’s Economic Survey Says

India’s economy is set for a ‘V’-shaped recovery in the next fiscal year, thanks to a massive vaccination drive and an expected rebound in the services sector, the Finance Ministry’s latest Economic Survey report said Friday.

Real GDP is set to grow 11.0 percent n 2021-22 after an estimated 7.7 percent contraction in 2020-21 financial year.

Elsewhere on Friday, the statistics ministry revised the 2019-20 GDP growth estimate to 4.0 percent from 4.2 percent. In 2018-19, GDP grew 6.8 percent.

“The V-shaped economic recovery is supported by the initiation of a mega vaccination drive with hopes of a robust recovery in the services sector and prospects for robust growth in consumption and investment,” the ministry said.

The economy would take two years to reach and go past the pre-pandemic level, the report said.

Earlier this week, the IMF forecast 11.5 percent growth for the Indian economy in 2021-22, which would be the fastest among major economies, and 6.8 percent for 2022-23. The economy is estimated to have shrunk 8 percent in 2020-21.

The survey showed that agriculture output is set to grow 3.4 percent in 2021-22, while output in industry and services are expected to contract 9.6 percent and 8.8 percent, respectively.

Further, the ministry forecast a current account surplus of 2 percent of GDP in the fiscal year 2021, which will mark a historic high after 17 years.

The Finance Minister is set to present the latest budget on February 1.

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