Goldman Sachs model now points to 4% second-quarter GDP growth

Goldman Sachs model now points to 4% second-quarter GDP growth
  • Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman Sachs, says the firm’s economic model for U.S. GDP is pointing to higher growth after a strong Empire State manufacturing index report Friday.
  • The firm’s 4 percent Q2 GDP tracker growth estimate is higher than the CNBC/Moody’s Analytics Rapid GDP Update 3.8 percent average.

The U.S. economy is likely growing faster than expected, according to an economic model from Goldman Sachs.

The firm raised its second-quarter GDP tracking model growth forecast to 4 percent from 3.9 percent on Friday, citing strong manufacturing economic data. The model incorporates the latest monthly economic releases to produce a GDP growth estimate.

“The Empire State manufacturing index unexpectedly strengthened in June, and the underlying composition similarly firmed with strength in all three key components,” Goldman chief economist Jan Hatzius said in a note to clients Friday. “In fact, given the firmer pace of utilities output, we boosted our Q2 GDP tracking estimate.”

Hatzius noted The Empire State manufacturing index rose by 4.9 points to 25 in June versus expectations for a “moderate decline.” The tracking number is different from the firm’s official economic forecast.

CNBC/Moody’s Analytics Rapid GDP Update showed an average economists’ estimates of tracking GDP of 3.8 percent after Thursday’s retail sales report.

Jobless claims also surprised economists Thursday, falling 4,000 to a near 44½-year low of 218,000, signaling an economy at full employment.

— CNBC’s Patti Domm and Michael Bloom contributed to this report

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