So, a lot of investors and analysts seem to think that BTC/USD is bearish or more blood is about to come. Most of them keep saying, Bitcoin (BTC) won’t go above $20,000 before 2019 or that the price may drop to $4,000 before going up but they rarely explain the rationale behind such statements. The bulls often substantiate their claims with evidence but the bears rarely do this. This is because most bears at this point are trading on sentiment, just like most bulls at the top were trading on sentiment. That being said, there are some bears that make a very good point. At least they have a reason for being bearish and are not trading on sentiment.
One popular bearish view is that the price has to break below the 21 Month EMA towards the end of December just like it did in 2015. They contend that price completes 13 months of correction before dropping below the 21 Month EMA. By that analysis, the price should continue to consolidate till December and then drop below the 21 Month EMA to enter another correction till late 2019. They also expect the price to drop around 86% same as it did in 2015. Both of these cycles would last a period of 22 bars or 669 days in total. According to this scenario, Bitcoin (BTC) should complete its correction around late 2019. After that, a period of gradual ascend will begin for Bitcoin (BTC) that will last another two years. In short, Bitcoin (BTC) may remain below $30,000 before 2022.
The bearish view relies on the assumption that the rate of rise or decline of BTC/USD will remain the same during each cycle. In my opinion, that assumption is flawed. Just as we cannot expect the price to rise with the same pace considering the finite amount of money available to put into the cryptocurrency market, similarly we cannot expect the price to drop in such large percentages when the market cap is that high. We have seen the same in the case of large cap markets like the stock market where gains of a few percent are very significant, whereas in the crypto market a few percent gains are inconsequential.
This means that we believe the rate of rise or fall will keep on declining with the passage of time. Thus, some cycles of the past will also be completed over shorter time spans. For instance, the rectangles highlighting parts of the Bollinger Band %B indicator on the above chart shows how similar the two fractals are but the latter has taken half the duration of the former to complete. The first rectangle encompassing the part of the chart between November 2013 and May 2015 has a duration of 80 bars or 560 days whereas the second rectangle encompassing the period between January 2018 and November 2018 lasts a duration of 40 bars or 280 days in total. By this analysis, we can say that the correction has also taken half the duration of the previous correction and is therefore complete and the market is ready to begin a new cycle.
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